Turn Hindsight into Foresight and de-risk your decisions: the Pre-Mortem exercise
Name: The premortem
Why use it? Hindsight is a wonderful thing, the saying goes. But what if we could access a bit of that hindsight upfront, and turn it into foresight? That’s the goal of the premortem.
The process: Sometimes what gets in the way of us making a decision is a fear of what might go wrong. In a premortem, we identify all the reasons why our plans might fail, and then come up with mitigations. You can do this on your own, or get together with a friend or coach. Here’s the process…
You’ve made the decision, and it’s ended in a massive disaster. What went wrong and why? List out all of the reasons. Often just writing these down has a positive effect – they’re less scary on paper than swirling in your head.
Now go through and pick your top 3-5 risks to focus on.
What would the consequence be of each of these?
How can you mitigate against each of these risks? Come up with things that you can do.
What would you do if that risk happened anyway? How would you deal with the consequences?
By considering in advance what could go wrong, you can put in place plans to reduce the risk of this happening.
However, even if the decision does go wrong, thinking about how you would deal with the consequences can make them feel more manageable. We can be very prone to catastrophizing an undefined risk. For example, thoughts about changing career can easily end in visions of being homeless and penniless. That’s generally not the case! Perhaps it might mean doing some temping work, moving in with relatives, or renting out a spare room instead....
Carrying out a premortem can empower you to move forward and make that scary decision you’ve been worrying about. Give it a go!